Congressional Tsunami Coming?

[chaboard]

Any thoughts on the special election in Mississippi tonight? A Congressional race in a very,very, very red district...the NRCC pumped well over a million dollars into it...and the result is yet another Democratic win. Is this a tea leaf?

[chaboard]

Adding some commentary from Josh Marshall:



To put this into some broader perspective, the Republicans have lost three straight Republican districts to the Democrats in by-elections this year. Hastert's district in Illinois, Louisiana 6th, and now Mississippi 1st. Each successively more Republican than the last. In Mississippi 1st, President Bush got 62% of the vote there in 2004.

Symbolic Number Update: On the symbolic level, this pulls the House GOP caucus down to 199 -- below 200.

[MattD]

Any thoughts on the special election in Mississippi tonight? A Congressional race in a very,very, very red district...the NRCC pumped well over a million dollars into it...and the result is yet another Democratic win. Is this a tea leaf?

In a word: "Yes".

[Icorpse]

How about a senate Tsunami? Read on...

REX NUTTING
Filibuster-proof Senate tantalizingly close for Dems
Commentary: Republicans seen losing at least four seats in November
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:37 p.m. EDT May 13, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - When the polls say Senate seats in Republican bastions such as Alaska, Kentucky and Texas are vulnerable to a Democratic takeover in November, you know it's the Democrats' year.
The Democrats, who now have 51 seats in the 100-member Senate (counting independents), are beginning to dream of an almost unattainable goal: Reaching the magical 60 votes needed to exercise absolute control of the chamber.
A weak economy, an unpopular war, an unpopular president, a lot of vacant GOP seats, and well-funded Democratic candidates may portend a Democratic landslide.
It's been 28 years since any party had the 60 Senate votes needed to end filibusters, the increasingly common tactic used by the minority to obstruct and frustrate the will of the majority.
With six months to go before the election, analysts say the Democrats are likely to have a very good year, but not quite good enough. "They are not going to get to 60," said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia who operates the Crystal Ball political newsletter and website.
Plenty can (and will) happen between now and November, of course. The current landscape looks very favorable for the Democrats, and the tide is still moving their way, said Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports, whose poll showing a close race in Texas has shocked the Lone Star state.
"The underlying political fundamentals are bad for Republicans," Rasmussen said. Most importantly, voters increasingly identify themselves as Democrats, with Democrats now outnumbering Republicans 41% to 31%.
Add in a weak economy, an unpopular war, an unpopular president, a large number of vacant Republican seats, and a strong list of well-funded Democratic candidates, and you have makings of a Democratic landslide.
Rasmussen says 10 Republicans seats are in play this year, compared with just one Democratic seat.
The most likely outcome, analysts agree, is a Democratic pick up of four seats: Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico.
In three of those states, long-time Republican senators are retiring, leaving an opening for Democrats in states that are turning bluer. Former Gov. Mark Warner is likely to win in Virginia, while the Udall cousins, Mark and Tom, are expected to move up from the House to the Senate in Colorado and New Mexico.
In New Hampshire, incumbent Sen. John Sununu Jr. faces a popular former Democratic governor, Jeanne Shaheen, in the rematch of the 2002 race. Since then, New Hampshire has elected nothing but Democrats.

More surprisingly stiff challenges
If the election were held today, 40-year Senate veteran Ted Stevens of Alaska would lose to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Sabato said. The corruption scandal that's engulfed Stevens and other Republicans will also put the state's only congressional seat into play, he said.
Four more Republican seats could fall if the mood of the public shifts further to the Democrats, Rasmussen said.
Incumbent Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Gordon Smith of Oregon, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Norm Coleman of Minnesota are currently favored by small margins over strong Democratic opponents.
On the Democratic side, only Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana is considered vulnerable. But the recent victory by Democrat Don Cazayoux in a special election for a traditional Republican seat in the House a week ago has given her more breathing room.
Polls point to several other Republicans who could face surprisingly stiff challenges in November. At this point, few observers expect these seats to fall.
"At some point political gravity will eventually come into play," Rasmussen said, meaning that states that are fundamentally Republican will probably vote that way in November, no matter what a poll or two in May says.
Still, these few polls are shocking, even for May.
Sen. John Cornyn of Texas was leading state Rep. Rick Noriega by just four points in Rasmussen's poll. No Democrat has been elected in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was holding 7 or 8 point leads over two Democrats running in next week's primary election. Democrats would like nothing better than ousting McConnell, the architect of the obstructionist strategy that has gridlocked Washington.
In Mississippi, former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove will face Sen. Roger Wicker, who was appointed to Trent Lott's seat in December. Musgrove has greater name recognition than Wicker, Congressional Quarterly said, and could benefit from a huge Democratic turnout with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.
That anyone is even talking about Texas or Mississippi shows what a strange election year this is.
"There is definitely a tide that is moving," Rasmussen said, "and none of us have grasped it as well as we should."

[Brent]

How about a senate Tsunami?

Shouldn't that be "Tsenate tsunami"? :D

[chaboard]

How about a senate Tsunami?

Shouldn't that be "Tsenate tsunami"? :D

Only if Paul Tsongas comes back to life to win again....

[Brent]

How about a senate Tsunami?

Shouldn't that be "Tsenate tsunami"? :D

Only if Paul Tsongas comes back to life to win again....

Good one! Very, very good.