NC Registration Numbers

[chaboard]

Interesting article at 538 today regarding NC registration increases (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/voter-registration-in-north-carolina.html#comments) :


The state of North Carolina maintains particularly good voter registration statistics. With their registration deadline having closed last week, let's take a quick look at the numbers.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3019/2940979040_1496204a05_o.png


Since the first of the year, Democrats have added about 250,000 voters to the Republicans' roughly 50,000, while unaffiliated voters also increased their numbers by about 170,000. What was a 10.6 point party ID gap at the start of the year is now 13.0 points. About half that gain came between the first of the year and the state's May primary, and the other half came between the primary and last week's deadline.

There is fairly close to a 1:1 correspondence between the party ID gap and the Obama-McCain gap, so these new registrations alone account for about one point's worth of the gains that Obama has made in North Carolina since the summer.

Meanwhile, about 150,000 black voters -- and 35,000 "other" voters -- have been added to the rolls since the start of the year. That compares with about 235,000 white voters.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3037/2940979074_1e7f349289_o.png


Assuming that Obama captures 35 percent of white voters, 95 percent of black voters, and 60 percent of "other" voters, the change in the racial composition of the electorate since the first of the year is worth a net of about 1.5 points to Obama in his race against McCain.


The effect on the down ticket races will be huge, in my opinion.

Oh and I think Nate erred in declaring these numbers to be final. We still have One-Stop registration & voting, don't we?

[Wuptdo]

And what would be the icing on the cake? How about photo ID as proof as to whom you are at the polling places.

I think we all agree that voter fraud should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

Oh, and I got this little jewel in the morning e-mail:

North Carolinians For Immigration Reform and Enforcement

I AM SURE YOU HAVE HEARD OF THE GROUP 'ACORN', WHICH IS HEAVILY INVOLVED IN, AND BEING INVESTIGATED FOR, ELECTION FRAUD NATIONWIDE.

IN 2008, 'ACORN' REGISTERED 26,841 VOTERS IN NORTH CAROLINA.

ELAINE F. MARSHALL, N.C. SECRETARY OF STATE, IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ENSURING THAT ALL VOTER REGISTRATIONS, SUBMITTED IN N.C., ARE VALID.

IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT THIS ELECTION IS NOT UNDERMINED BY ILLEGAL VOTING, CALL HER OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL BOARD OF ELECTIONS OFFICE, AND ASK:

"WHAT STEPS ARE BEING TAKEN TO ENSURE THAT THE VOTER REGISTRATIONS, SUBMITTED IN NORTH CAROLINA, ARE NOT FRAUDULENT?"

THE MAIN SWITCHBOARD NUMBER TO THE SEC'T. OF STATE'S OFFICE IS: 919-807-2000

Wake County: Ms. Cherie Poucher, WAKE.boe@ncmail.net -- 919-856-6240

In this day and age, voter fraud should not even be an issue.

[chaboard]

And what would be the icing on the cake? How about photo ID as proof as to whom you are at the polling places.

I think we all agree that voter fraud should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
In this day and age, voter fraud should not even be an issue.

Right. But two points:

1) THose numbers were - I believe - the registraions already VERIFIED by the BoE. No Donald Duck's ion the bunch.

2) You're free to jump in and take the challeng Hyatt ignored....explain the motive for false registrations? Should be interesting to hear you try. But I'm guessing you'll ignore and keep spreading garbage like the article above intended to whip up fear so voter suppression will work. Election fraud is a huge issue...."voter fraud" is not.

[chaboard]

And what would be the icing on the cake? How about photo ID as proof as to whom you are at the polling places.

I think we all agree that voter fraud should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
In this day and age, voter fraud should not even be an issue.

Right. But two points:

1) THose numbers were - I believe - the registraions already VERIFIED by the BoE. No Donald Duck's ion the bunch.

2) You're free to jump in and take the challeng Hyatt ignored....explain the motive for false registrations? Should be interesting to hear you try. But I'm guessing you'll ignore and keep spreading garbage like the article above intended to whip up fear so voter suppression will work.

[Wuptdo]

Funny you should mention it:

Micky Mouse is voting (http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/elections/article852295.ece)

The GOP accuses ACORN of registration fraud all over the country. In Las Vegas, authorities said the group's petitions included the names of the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys.

"This is part of a widespread and systemic effort … to undermine the election process," says Republican National Committee chief counsel Sean Cairncross, who describes ACORN as a "quasicriminal organization."

Apples and oranges Chaboard, and you know it. Funny, I thought you would climb right in with the Photo ID issue, or are you still checking with your "masters" at DailyKos on that one.

[dhyatt]

[snip]

2) You're free to jump in and take the challeng Hyatt ignored....explain the motive for false registrations? Should be interesting to hear you try. But I'm guessing you'll ignore and keep spreading garbage like the article above intended to whip up fear so voter suppression will work.

I ignore nothing (not even taunts from a liberal chump like you :-) ) not entirely true, sometimes I ah... just forget to post, yea, that's it....

From post #19 in the ACORN Investigation thread...
All of which misses the much more salient point of how these massive numbers of fraudulent registrations are used to drive public opinion. We have heard repeatedly over the last several months about huge numbers of new Democratic voter registrations. This 'news' - based on registration (sic) fraud - is used to try and sell the public on a groundswell of support for Barrack Obama. The media latches on to these reports, issued by Democratic operatives, and uses them to try to sway voter opinion - especially among the uneducated and uninterested.

Now you may not agree with my explanation and that would be nothing new. Did you ever take a look my voucher calculations? Somebody needs to because the numbers don't add up and they should :-(

[StanN]

Charboard,

The Wake County numbers are the most pertinent ones to many on this board...not just me. If you could post same there are likely several who would comment.

StanN

[Brent]

Registration numbers historically are not direct predictors of turnout.

Only those who actually vote, actually count.

Although I expect Democratic advantage in most state races, and to some extent, local races, basing the expectation on registration increases isn't a good predictor. It seems that every year, we hear that *THIS* is the year when all those new people that the <insert candidate name here> campaign registered are really going to turn out, and it's going to make the difference.

Perhaps this will indeed be that year. But it remains to be seen.

[chaboard]

Registration numbers historically are not direct predictors of turnout.

Only those who actually vote, actually count.

Although I expect Democratic advantage in most state races, and to some extent, local races, basing the expectation on registration increases isn't a good predictor. It seems that every year, we hear that *THIS* is the year when all those new people that the <insert candidate name here> campaign registered are really going to turn out, and it's going to make the difference.

Perhaps this will indeed be that year. But it remains to be seen.

Good points. But new registrants tend to vote in higher percentages than existing voters so this is really bad news for the GOP. And I'll bet thast tendency is much more pronounced this year due to historic unprecedented enthusiasm on the Dem side.

We'll see three weeks today. But I'm predicting a new voter tsunami unlike any we've ever seen.

[chaboard]

[quote=chaboard;47485][snip]

2) You're free to jump in and take the challeng Hyatt ignored....explain the motive for false registrations? Should be interesting to hear you try. But I'm guessing you'll ignore and keep spreading garbage like the article above intended to whip up fear so voter suppression will work.

I ignore nothing (not even taunts from a liberal chump like you :-) ) not entirely true, sometimes I ah... just forget to post, yea, that's it....

From post #19 in the ACORN Investigation thread...
All of which misses the much more salient point of how these massive numbers of fraudulent registrations are used to drive public opinion. We have heard repeatedly over the last several months about huge numbers of new Democratic voter registrations. This 'news' - based on registration (sic) fraud - is used to try and sell the public on a groundswell of support for Barrack Obama. The media latches on to these reports, issued by Democratic operatives, and uses them to try to sway voter opinion - especially among the uneducated and uninterested.

That's extremely weak. So you think these folks are risking prison on the off chance that the press MIGHT report their numbers and that such reporting MIGHT help their side (when it *could* just as easily motivate the other side! - recall that when Karl Rove was putting together his GOTV machine in 2004 he strived hard to keep it secret right up until Election day. More effective as a surprise.).

That would be a very bizarre motive under any case....but it totally falls apart when you notice that the closer you get to election day (ie the period when such false publicity would presumably have the most value!) the more likely you are to have your "fake" numbers undermined by OFFICIAL numbers of *verified* registration such as the one that started this thread.

You've still got no motive that explains multiple felonies and a conspiracy. Care to try again? ;)



Now you may not agree with my explanation and that would be nothing new. Did you ever take a look my voucher calculations? Somebody needs to because the numbers don't add up and they should :-(

I think the problem was with the original equation, er inequality. I forget the details but seem to recall that you had setup something of the form A + B > C, but were dealing with unlike things.....two of the terms were costs while one was savings or something like that, so the grand inequality didn't have the overall meaning you were going for, so attempts to solve it gave results that differed dramatically from what you were expecting. That's my rough recollection - I'll pull it up again when I get another lull.

[chaboard]

Charboard,

The Wake County numbers are the most pertinent ones to many on this board...not just me. If you could post same there are likely several who would comment.

StanN

Stan, I didn't pull the numbers...I copied them from an article over at fivethirtyeight.com.

If I get a chance tonight I'll see if I can figure out how to pull current Wake Co numbers....but I'm guessing current will be all I can pull. I doubt they'll have a way to pull J1 numbers for comparison purposes.

[StanN]

Here is a current summary from the BOE (thats the Board of Elections),

All numbers in the thousands.

D 240
R 180
U 146

For years ago.

D 192
R 163
U 102

So the D's are up 48 versus the R's 17.

The highest pct. of U's is in Cary. Cary, per registration data, is largely R.

[chaboard]

From post #19 in the ACORN Investigation thread...
All of which misses the much more salient point of how these massive numbers of fraudulent registrations are used to drive public opinion. We have heard repeatedly over the last several months about huge numbers of new Democratic voter registrations. This 'news' - based on registration (sic) fraud - is used to try and sell the public on a groundswell of support for Barrack Obama. The media latches on to these reports, issued by Democratic operatives, and uses them to try to sway voter opinion - especially among the uneducated and uninterested.

That's extremely weak. So you think these folks are risking prison on the off chance that the press MIGHT report their numbers and that such reporting MIGHT help their side (when it *could* just as easily motivate the other side! - recall that when Karl Rove was putting together his GOTV machine in 2004 he strived hard to keep it secret right up until Election day. More effective as a surprise.).


I should also add here that in this very thread we've seen figures that show that ACORN registered only a small fraction of the new voters in NC (well under 10% of them)....so again, why risk prison to make a small difference at the margins in numbers that are only really useful - if at all, which is doubtful - for PR purposes?

Do you really think people would be willing to risk felony convictions for such little "upside"?


That would be a very bizarre motive under any case....but it totally falls apart when you notice that the closer you get to election day (ie the period when such false publicity would presumably have the most value!) the more likely you are to have your "fake" numbers undermined by OFFICIAL numbers of *verified* registration such as the one that started this thread.

You've still got no motive that explains multiple felonies and a conspiracy. Care to try again? ;)



Now you may not agree with my explanation and that would be nothing new. Did you ever take a look my voucher calculations? Somebody needs to because the numbers don't add up and they should :-(

I think the problem was with the original equation, er inequality. I forget the details but seem to recall that you had setup something of the form A + B > C, but were dealing with unlike things.....two of the terms were costs while one was savings or something like that, so the grand inequality didn't have the overall meaning you were going for, so attempts to solve it gave results that differed dramatically from what you were expecting. That's my rough recollection - I'll pull it up again when I get another lull.

[MattD]

And what would be the icing on the cake? How about photo ID as proof as to whom you are at the polling places.

I think we all agree that voter fraud should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.


Wupt - I personally have no issue with having proof of ID to vote. I also agree that voter fraud SHOULD be prosecuted. I also believe (as I am sure you do) that voter suppression should also be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

Look at that... we agree on three specific issues!

[Brent]

Look at that... we agree on three specific issues!

Well, just stop that right now! :D

[Wuptdo]

Originally Posted by MattD View Post
Look at that... we agree on three specific issues!
Well, just stop that right now!

Who said miracles don't happen anymore.

###
To Wake County Republikans (Statewide as well):

Instead of having volunteers waste time standing outside of polling places with signs, may I suggest the following.

1) Three person teams
2) Car or Van
3) Good digital video camera (with 10x zoom minimum) with battery charger
4) Fully Charged cells phones
5) Lots of coffee

Use Vid-teams to follow vans and buses going to and fro from the various polling places in Wake County. Most volunteer buses pick-up folks, take them to the polling place, then take them back. I have done this several times over the years on election day in my "Big Green" machine. Didn't care whom they were voting, just providing the ride. Besides, old folks have the best cookies.

However, if a bus load of folks is going from polling place to polling place to polling place, there might be a wee bit of voter fraud going on, especially if the folks are walking in with pieces of paper in hand. Turn them cameras ON.