Any Predictions?

[MattD]

Does anyone have any predictions for the local elections?

[DarylB]

Does anyone have any predictions for the local elections?

I think predicting that we're going to continue to be dominated by corrupt Democrats is a pretty safe bet, since it seems that's been the case since 1898.. Most North Carolinians really don't expect change, and have succumbed to occupation rule.

[JoeCiulla]

Does anyone have any predictions for the local elections?

I think predicting that we're going to continue to be dominated by corrupt Democrats is a pretty safe bet, since it seems that's been the case since 1898.. Most North Carolinians really don't expect change, and have succumbed to occupation rule.

I'm not so sure. "Change" is the resonating theme in all the elections this year. NC may vote for a Democratic President, a Democratic Senator and a Republican Governor.

NC government has been plagued by corruption the past couple of years. Closer to home, more people seem to be concerned about illegal immigration, failing schools and pilfered highway trust funds.

There's no poll data out there for the state legislative races, at least not that I've seen, so prediction are hard. But, there is movement to change the status quo.

The NC Education Forum ran a candidate survey (http://www.ncedforum.org/2008_candidate_information) regarding schools. I'm disappointed that some of our incumbents and challengers could not take the time to participate. The more information we have, the better.

[DarylB]

Does anyone have any predictions for the local elections?

I think predicting that we're going to continue to be dominated by corrupt Democrats is a pretty safe bet, since it seems that's been the case since 1898.. Most North Carolinians really don't expect change, and have succumbed to occupation rule.

I'm not so sure. "Change" is the resonating theme in all the elections this year. NC may vote for a Democratic President, a Democratic Senator and a Republican Governor.
Certainly a Republica Governor will be a breath of fresh air after Easley, but the legislature is just reinforced and reinvigorated with more of the same... take Weiss and her YellowDog.com as my own recent example. There's really no housecleaning here, when that's been clearly needed, especially in the aftermath of Jim Black. Those with whom he colluded, and who profited from his corruption continue to serve, and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The average voter just pulls the lever, if they bother to vote, for the same-O-same-O.

NC government has been plagued by corruption the past couple of years. Closer to home, more people seem to be concerned about illegal immigration, failing schools and pilfered highway trust funds.
More like for the last HUNDRED years. It has only been noticed in the last couple of years in that it's gotten so bad, that eventually somebody HAD to admit it was stinkin'.

[Brent]

These are my predictions, not necessarily my desired outcomes, and Matt, you didn't define "local", so I used a very broad definition ;-).

County commissioners: all incumbents re-elected.

Governor: very close, McCrory becomes first NC GOP governor in ages.

US Senate: Kay Hagen squeaks by Liddy.

NC Senate: Becomes almost even GOP vs. Dem.

NC House: Remains controlled by Dems.

A few selected individual NCGA race predictions:
- Josh Stein wins handily
- Ty Harrell might find himself a one-termer
- Richard Stevens wins handily
- Jennifer Weiss wins handily
- Al Swanstrom / Nelson Dollar goes down to the wire.

I'm fully aware that predictions are quite risky, and I don't expect all these to be right.

But hey, you asked! ;-)

What do others think?

[JoeCiulla]

These are my predictions, not necessarily my desired outcomes, and Matt, you didn't define "local", so I used a very broad definition ;-).

County commissioners: all incumbents re-elected.

Governor: very close, McCrory becomes first NC GOP governor in ages.

US Senate: Kay Hagen squeaks by Liddy.

NC Senate: Becomes almost even GOP vs. Dem.

NC House: Remains controlled by Dems.

A few selected individual NCGA race predictions:
- Josh Stein wins handily
- Ty Harrell might find himself a one-termer
- Richard Stevens wins handily
- Jennifer Weiss wins handily
- Al Swanstrom / Nelson Dollar goes down to the wire.

I'm fully aware that predictions are quite risky, and I don't expect all these to be right.

But hey, you asked! ;-)

What do others think?

Stein/Alexander is a photo finish.

Bye Bye Ty.

Agree with all the others.

[MattD]

These are my predictions, not necessarily my desired outcomes, and Matt, you didn't define "local", so I used a very broad definition ;-).


Ummm... this thread is under the section: Raleigh & Wake Elections 2007 Raleigh & 2008 Wake Co Elections Discussion & Predictions ;-)

[DarylB]

These are my predictions, not necessarily my desired outcomes, and Matt, you didn't define "local", so I used a very broad definition ;-).


Ummm... this thread is under the section: Raleigh & Wake Elections 2007 Raleigh & 2008 Wake Co Elections Discussion & Predictions ;-)

Yea, so keep your predictions about Barry Soetoro to yourself..... geeesh...

http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd306/death-bi-bacon/icons/bitchslapped.gif

[JoeCiulla]

Does anyone have any predictions for the local elections?

C'mon man, you started this thread. Pony up.

[Icorpse]

Ty gone.
Stein wins by a landslide.
David Price wins a closer than expected race.
Ken Gardner loses to Stan.
Liddy Dole gone.
Purdue loses.
I'd really like to see Nelson Dollar go but does not look like that is going to happen.

It is 1 am in the morning and I am posting here. WTF happened to my life?

[Brent]

These are my predictions, not necessarily my desired outcomes, and Matt, you didn't define "local", so I used a very broad definition ;-).


Ummm... this thread is under the section: Raleigh & Wake Elections 2007 Raleigh & 2008 Wake Co Elections Discussion & Predictions ;-)

So I exceeded expectations ;) I think it's useful to include at least NCGA and fun to talk about governor and US Senator.

OK, Matt, you got a few of us to bite.

Now it's your turn. Prognosticate!

[Brent]

It is 1 am in the morning and I am posting here. WTF happened to my life?

Just tell folks you were out partying with the political illuminati of Cary and the surrounding area until the wee hours of the morning! :D

[JoeCiulla]

It is 1 am in the morning and I am posting here. WTF happened to my life?

Just tell folks you were out partying with the political illuminati of Cary and the surrounding area until the wee hours of the morning! :D

were you riding your ten-speed around?

[MattD]

My prediction is rather boring: All incumbents win with two exceptions - Swanstrom defeats Dollar and Stan Norwalk defeats Kenn Gardner.

The person who wins in largest landslide - Elaine Marshall.

[Don]

NC goes for McCain
Dole loses in a close race...although this one aint over yet.
McCrory wins bigger than expected (at least 3 points)
Walter Dalton wins
Stam, Weiss, and Dollar keep their jobs.
Gossage wins by less than 300 votes
Stein wins

[Icorpse]

It is 1 am in the morning and I am posting here. WTF happened to my life?

Just tell folks you were out partying with the political illuminati of Cary and the surrounding area until the wee hours of the morning! :D

were you riding your ten-speed around?

The truth is I just could not go to sleep. Rather boring...ain't it?

[MattD]

It is 1 am in the morning and I am posting here. WTF happened to my life?

Just tell folks you were out partying with the political illuminati of Cary and the surrounding area until the wee hours of the morning! :D

were you riding your ten-speed around?

The truth is I just could not go to sleep. Rather boring...ain't it?

You weren't out stilling yard signs, now where you? ;-)

[CarpenterV]

Obama narrowly misses in NC.
McCrory wins by more than expected.
Dole's out.
Stein's in (icky pol, but he gets in).
Ty's out.
Gardner's back in, but barely.

[Icorpse]

It is 1 am in the morning and I am posting here. WTF happened to my life?

Just tell folks you were out partying with the political illuminati of Cary and the surrounding area until the wee hours of the morning! :D

were you riding your ten-speed around?

The truth is I just could not go to sleep. Rather boring...ain't it?

You weren't out stilling yard signs, now where you? ;-)

That's an idea!

[Brent]

OK, folks, how'd we do?

Overall, I'd say we have no Nostradamus among us. :)

I attempted to review and "score" our predictions. I fully recognize that:

- It is easy to quibble with some of the scoring.
- We didn't all predict the same races
- The overall scores can be misleading
- Many other points of variability exist.

However, I don't care. ;) :D

For what it's worth, here's my attempt at assessment. Let the quibbling begin.

I think predicting that we're going to continue to be dominated by corrupt Democrats is a pretty safe bet, since it seems that's been the case since 1898.. Most North Carolinians really don't expect change, and have succumbed to occupation rule.

Not sure how to score this one. I suppose it’s safe to say that it’s correct that at the local, state and federal level, in this election, Democrats dominated. Certainly some exceptions, but significant Democratic “keeps” and “gains” in NC. Not sure how to assign an overall score, since it didn’t predict individual races.

These are my predictions, not necessarily my desired outcomes, and Matt, you didn't define "local", so I used a very broad definition ;-).

County commissioners: all incumbents re-elected. 2 out of 3. Congratulations to Stan who foiled 1/3 of this prediction

Governor: very close, McCrory becomes first NC GOP governor in ages. Bzzzt. No points here

US Senate: Kay Hagen squeaks by Liddy. Correct result, but way more than just squeaking by

NC Senate: Becomes almost even GOP vs. Dem. Nope. 1 gain for Dems, if I counted right

NC House: Remains controlled by Dems. Correct

A few selected individual NCGA race predictions:
- Josh Stein wins handily 61-39 I’ll count as “handily”. Correct
- Ty Harrell might find himself a one-termer Wrong
- Richard Stevens wins handily 81%. Yep
- Jennifer Weiss wins handily 65-35. Correct
- Al Swanstrom / Nelson Dollar goes down to the wire. I’m counting 700 vote difference out of 40,000 cast as correct

I'm fully aware that predictions are quite risky, and I don't expect all these to be right.

But hey, you asked! ;-)

What do others think?

Overall, the way I’m scoring, this is 8/12, or 67%. C-



These are my predictions, not necessarily my desired outcomes, and Matt, you didn't define "local", so I used a very broad definition ;-).

County commissioners: all incumbents re-elected.

Governor: very close, McCrory becomes first NC GOP governor in ages.

US Senate: Kay Hagen squeaks by Liddy.

NC Senate: Becomes almost even GOP vs. Dem.

NC House: Remains controlled by Dems.

A few selected individual NCGA race predictions:
- Josh Stein wins handily
- Ty Harrell might find himself a one-termer
- Richard Stevens wins handily
- Jennifer Weiss wins handily
- Al Swanstrom / Nelson Dollar goes down to the wire.

I'm fully aware that predictions are quite risky, and I don't expect all these to be right.

But hey, you asked! ;-)

What do others think?

Stein/Alexander is a photo finish. Nope

Bye Bye Ty. Sorry

Agree with all the others.See Brent’s score earlier

Overall 7/12, or 58%. D-


Ty gone. Swing and a miss
Stein wins by a landslide. Hmmm.. Don’t find an accepted numerical definition for “landslide”. If one uses “overwhelming victory”, I would count this correct
David Price wins a closer than expected race. Price won 63-36. One poll I saw was 70-25. I have a hard time making a convincing case for “closer than expected”. I’d say half credit on this one
Ken Gardner loses to Stan. Correct; one of the few to correctly predict this one
Liddy Dole gone. Bingo
Purdue loses. Oops
I'd really like to see Nelson Dollar go but does not look like that is going to happen.Correct

It is 1 am in the morning and I am posting here. WTF happened to my life? Probably should deduct points for this :D

Overall 4.5/7, or 64%. D+




My prediction is rather boring: All incumbents win with two exceptions - Swanstrom defeats Dollar and Stan Norwalk defeats Kenn Gardner. Hard to score this one, as “all” incumbents didn’t specify the scope of “all” (does it include all local races? All “local” NCGA races? All Council of State races? In an attempt to be comparable to others’ predictions, I’ll score this one assuming it includes the 4 NCGA races already noted by previous predictors that HAD an incumbent, and the 3 county commission races, since those are the two categories for which Matt notes his exceptions. So that would equate to predicting Harrell, Weiss, Stevens, Swanstrom (3 out of 4), plus correct predictions for all 3 county commissioners, or 6 out of 7 (!)

The person who wins in largest landslide - Elaine Marshall. Thrown for a loss. Even if restricted only to Council of State races, Roy Cooper had a larger winning margin.

Overall 6 out of 8, or 75%. C


NC goes for McCain POSSIBLY premature, but unofficial results indicate Don’s still in the Twin Cities ;) . Counting this one incorrect until proven otherwise.
Dole loses in a close race...although this one aint over yet. I actually think it’s hard to argue that this was truly “close” (8 percentage points/ >350,000 votes. ½ credit
McCrory wins bigger than expected (at least 3 points) Ouch
Walter Dalton wins Correct
Stam, Weiss, and Dollar keep their jobs.Three for three
Gossage wins by less than 300 votes Missed by 5029 votes
Stein wins Correct

Overall 5.5/9, or 61%. D



Obama narrowly misses in NC. Again, until proven otherwise, counting this one incorrect (it appears Obama narrowly makes it in NC)
McCrory wins by more than expected. Unless “more than expected” was a negative number, ;) no dice
Dole's out. Correct
Stein's in (icky pol, but he gets in). Correct
Ty's out. Joining most predictors in being wrong on this one
Gardner's back in, but barely.Puts up the shot, but it bounces out

Overall, 2/6, or 33%. Not posting letter grade ;)