Latest poll results for Wake BOC

[StanN]

Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Democrats primed for Wake Couny takeover
Currently Republicans hold a 4-3 advantage on the Wake County Board of Commissioners, but if nothing changes between now and election day incumbent Republican Kenn Gardner will lose his seat to Democratic challenger Stan Norwalk and flip the balance of control on the board.

Norwalk leads 49-40 in PPP's newest poll, a result pretty similar to a survey last month that showed him up 46-36. Norwalk is up 63-30 with those who have already voted and has a 47-31 advantage with independents. He has been attacked repeatedly by groups associated with the development industry in recent days, but there may be too much political clutter for that to break thorough. Also, PPP surveys of Wake County residents over the last seven years have repeatedly shown that county residents agree with the sorts of initiatives that Norwalk supports to make growth pay for itself, the very stances that he is being attacked for.

In the other two Wake County commissioner races incumbent Democrats are coasting to victory. Harold Webb leads Venita Peyton 52-37, and Betty Lou Ward is up 53-38 on Larry Tilley.

Full results here.

[DarylB]

If Stan is nothing else to us, he is ALWAYS entertaining.....

YouTube - Professor Gizmo one-man-band Tiger Rag


Wha's da matter, Stan, couldn't get anybody else to bang your drum for you? PPP, aka, the "Push Poll Provider".

[MattD]

Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Democrats primed for Wake Couny takeover
Currently Republicans hold a 4-3 advantage on the Wake County Board of Commissioners, but if nothing changes between now and election day incumbent Republican Kenn Gardner will lose his seat to Democratic challenger Stan Norwalk and flip the balance of control on the board.

Norwalk leads 49-40 in PPP's newest poll, a result pretty similar to a survey last month that showed him up 46-36. Norwalk is up 63-30 with those who have already voted and has a 47-31 advantage with independents. He has been attacked repeatedly by groups associated with the development industry in recent days, but there may be too much political clutter for that to break thorough. Also, PPP surveys of Wake County residents over the last seven years have repeatedly shown that county residents agree with the sorts of initiatives that Norwalk supports to make growth pay for itself, the very stances that he is being attacked for.

In the other two Wake County commissioner races incumbent Democrats are coasting to victory. Harold Webb leads Venita Peyton 52-37, and Betty Lou Ward is up 53-38 on Larry Tilley.

Full results here.

Stan - Congrats on your current lead. The most telling is the 63 to 30 of those that have already voted. As I stated on a previous post, I hope you continue to keep posting after you are elected.

[StanN]

From politico.com today.

Voters in North Carolina’s Wake County, however, part of the politically competitive Research Triangle area, chose Obama by a solid 53 percent to 39 percent margin. That represented a considerable improvement over Obama’s showing in Politico’s first survey of Wake, taken October 9, when he led McCain by a margin of 50 percent to 44 percent.

JoeC,

I wonder how many of your forecasts will be washed away in the tide.

BTW, Obama has 600 volunteers networked out of the CARY office. Amazing!

[chaboard]

BTW, Obama has 600 volunteers networked out of the CARY office. Amazing!

And I do believe every single one of them - including myself - has called me this week and asked me to canvas this weekend. :))

This is an unbelievable grass-roots organization.....

[JoeCiulla]

From politico.com today.

Voters in North Carolina’s Wake County, however, part of the politically competitive Research Triangle area, chose Obama by a solid 53 percent to 39 percent margin. That represented a considerable improvement over Obama’s showing in Politico’s first survey of Wake, taken October 9, when he led McCain by a margin of 50 percent to 44 percent.

JoeC,

I wonder how many of your forecasts will be washed away in the tide.

BTW, Obama has 600 volunteers networked out of the CARY office. Amazing!

Stan,
If I recall correctly, I haven't offered any "forecasts" on who will win the Presidential election.

Your post shows how petty and condescending you can be, I hope that is a trait you will shed if you win this election.

[DarylB]

Does it strike anyone else as odd that the percentage results of these races are damned near identical? I'm thinking that a tremendous amount of straight-ticket party voting could explain this, I can't think of too many other reasons why the results would be so similar......as posted at WRAL.

Wake Co Commissioner Dist 4
http://wwwcache.wral.com/presentation/v1/images/elections/red_check.gifStan Norwalk (D)
222,540
55%

Kenn Gardner (R) (i)
179,680
45%


Wake Co Commissioner Dist 5
http://wwwcache.wral.com/presentation/v1/images/elections/red_check.gifHarold Webb (D) (i)
234,722
58%

Venita Peyton (R)
168,962
42%


Wake Co Commissioner Dist 6

http://wwwcache.wral.com/presentation/v1/images/elections/red_check.gifBetty Lou Ward (D) (i)
232,294
58%

Larry Tilley (R)
169,372
42%


(Last updated 11:13 a.m., Precincts: 100% reporting

[chaboard]

Does it strike anyone else as odd that the percentage results of these races are damned near identical? I'm thinking that a tremendous amount of straight-ticket party voting could explain this, I can't think of too many other reasons why the results would be so similar.

Unofficial resulrs from the respective web sites this morning (both likely pretty complete aside from provisionals and maybe some stray absentees)

Straight ticket votes in Wake County (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/Wake/8029/12787/en/summary.html):
Dem 128,200 60.51%
GOP 82.090 38.75%
Lib 1,569 0.74%
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total 211,859

There's no Total Votes Cast figure given but that 211,859 would be 48.7% of the 435,461 votes cast in the Governor's race in Wake County

Straight ticket votes in North Carolina (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/13284/en/summary.html):
Dem 1,254,142 58.79%
GOP 859,959 40.31%
Lib 19,075 0.89%
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total 2,133,176 of 4,293,645 total cast - 49.7%

Pretty clear that:
a) Obama had some mighty big coattails here and
b) The Dem totalls were actually *lower* than they would be if we didn't have our unique exemption of the Prez race from straight ticket voting
c) A whole lot of people like voting straight ticket

[StanN]

There is no doubt that the Obama tail-wind and straight ticket voting helped me win my race...as well as other Dem's

But also consider the power of being an incumbent. E.g. Paul Stam and Nelson Dollar held their seats regardless of the tail-wind and straight ticket voting. Weiss, Harrel, Ross and Martin won...to what extent was this due to their incumbency vs. their party affiliation?

Incumbency brings: name recognition, the ability to help individual constituents with the bureaucracy, opportunities for communicating with constituents, larger donations, an established base of volunteers and donors, etc.

Gardner was a major exception for reasons we have discussed before.

[StanN]

A note on at-large vs. district voting. Had I run the identical race in my district vs. running at large..I would have lost.

If Ron Margiotta were to run at large, the odds are overwhelming that he would lose.

The Constitution and the Declaration of Independence were written and signed by folks with widely varying points of view. They were not selected at-large. Extending the rights of free men to slaves was a bone of major contention. None-the-less men of good will ignored or compromised their differences.

What they had was a common vision of a better society. That gave them the will and the passion to make it happen.

Fiddling around with the way we elect school board members - or CC's, is no substitute for that common vision regarding the role of education. If the BOC and the BOE can't arrive at a common vision, their decisions will result in continued strife and contention.

In that vein here is a presentation I heard a few weeks ago. It offers a vision for the future of education. Would you support that vision?

http://www.wakeedpartnership.org/programs/d/plexicopresentation.pdf

[JoeCiulla]

A note on at-large vs. district voting. Had I run the identical race in my district vs. running at large..I would have lost.

If Ron Margiotta were to run at large, the odds are overwhelming that he would lose.

The Constitution and the Declaration of Independence were written and signed by folks with widely varying points of view. They were not selected at-large. Extending the rights of free men to slaves was a bone of major contention. None-the-less men of good will ignored or compromised their differences.

What they had was a common vision of a better society. That gave them the will and the passion to make it happen.

Fiddling around with the way we elect school board members - or CC's, is no substitute for that common vision regarding the role of education. If the BOC and the BOE can't arrive at a common vision, their decisions will result in continued strife and contention.

In that vein here is a presentation I heard a few weeks ago. It offers a vision for the future of education. Would you support that vision?

http://www.wakeedpartnership.org/programs/d/plexicopresentation.pdf

I hope this doesn't mean you've made up your mind about at-large elections and won't consider input from your constituents. My biggest fear is that the BOC and BOE do arrive at a common vision for education. Why would such a vision now be predominantly based on citizen input versus board agreement?

[DarylB]

What they had was a common vision of a better society....If the BOC and the BOE can't arrive at a common vision, their decisions will result in continued strife and contention.


Strife and contention is EXACTLY what the Founding Fathers wanted, end went about setting up a whole system of checks and balances to ensure that we were never again ruled by a consensus of opinion. We don't need one opinion, we need ALL opinions, led by the majority opinion.

[StanN]

A note on at-large vs. district voting. Had I run the identical race in my district vs. running at large..I would have lost.

If Ron Margiotta were to run at large, the odds are overwhelming that he would lose.

The Constitution and the Declaration of Independence were written and signed by folks with widely varying points of view. They were not selected at-large. Extending the rights of free men to slaves was a bone of major contention. None-the-less men of good will ignored or compromised their differences.

What they had was a common vision of a better society. That gave them the will and the passion to make it happen.

Fiddling around with the way we elect school board members - or CC's, is no substitute for that common vision regarding the role of education. If the BOC and the BOE can't arrive at a common vision, their decisions will result in continued strife and contention.

In that vein here is a presentation I heard a few weeks ago. It offers a vision for the future of education. Would you support that vision?

http://www.wakeedpartnership.org/programs/d/plexicopresentation.pdf

I hope this doesn't mean you've made up your mind about at-large elections and won't consider input from your constituents. My biggest fear is that the BOC and BOE do arrive at a common vision for education. Why would such a vision now be predominantly based on citizen input versus board agreement?

Joe,

I will always listen, but there are many citizens who simply do not agree with you.

[StanN]

What they had was a common vision of a better society....If the BOC and the BOE can't arrive at a common vision, their decisions will result in continued strife and contention.


Strife and contention is EXACTLY what the Founding Fathers wanted, end went about setting up a whole system of checks and balances to ensure that we were never again ruled by a consensus of opinion. We don't need one opinion, we need ALL opinions, led by the majority opinion.

The ultimate system of checks and balances remains...its called elections.

[Brent]

A note on at-large vs. district voting. Had I run the identical race in my district vs. running at large..I would have lost.

I'm not sure how you concluded that, unless you were able to somehow factor in one-stop voting by precinct (data that I don't think is available?).

If Ron Margiotta were to run at large, the odds are overwhelming that he would lose.

I'm not sure how you concluded this, either. We certainly have several examples of "conservative" Republicans who can and have won county-wide elections.

The Constitution and the Declaration of Independence were written and signed by folks with widely varying points of view. They were not selected at-large.

And they came up with a form of government that mixes district and at-large representation.

Fiddling around with the way we elect school board members - or CC's, is no substitute for that common vision regarding the role of education. If the BOC and the BOE can't arrive at a common vision, their decisions will result in continued strife and contention.

Who the commissioners and BoE members are will determine the common vision. Who the commissioners and BoE members are is influenced by the form of the election. I continue to assert that having a mix of people, some accountable to their district and some accountable county-wide, could increase diversity of opionions and perhaps result in a better common vision.

Did you ever consider that perhaps a fundamental source of the current contention is that ALL WCCs are elected county-wide and ALL BoE members are elected by district?

In that vein here is a presentation I heard a few weeks ago. It offers a vision for the future of education. Would you support that vision?

http://www.wakeedpartnership.org/programs/d/plexicopresentation.pdf

It's not entirely clear what the vision is. The presentation has a lot of statistics and a lot of observations. It appears to include some general recommendations, but it's not clear to me what specific recommendations it's making.

If the vision is supposed to include educating students for the changing global environment and encouraging more education in skills that are more pragmatic in that changing world (applicable in business and more applicable in the future dominant regions and cultures), then yes, I support much of what I think they might be saying.

But that "vision", if it is one, would appear primarily to affect school calendars and curriculum and teacher training and degree programs at universities for educators.

I'm not sure exactly how it relates to improving the situation between the WCCs and the BoE for decisions about school capacity, funding, student assignment and so on.

And I can't for the life of me figure out how it's relevant to discussion about how the WCCs and BoE are elected.

I continue to maiintain that a 5/4 (district/at-large) BoE split and a 4/3 WCC split is a model worth pursuing. It's in line with most other local government bodies. One body elected entirely at-large and one body elected entirely by district still doesn't make sense to me. The anti-"all at-large" arguments for the BoE would seem to apply to the all-at-large WCCs and vice-versa.

[JoeCiulla]

I continue to maiintain that a 5/4 (district/at-large) BoE split and a 4/3 WCC split is a model worth pursuing. It's in line with most other local government bodies. One body elected entirely at-large and one body elected entirely by district still doesn't make sense to me. The anti-"all at-large" arguments for the BoE would seem to apply to the all-at-large WCCs and vice-versa.

Stan,
Now that you have a Dem majority within the CC's and a major Dem majority in the state legislature, will you be pushing to have CC elections converted to district-based?

[Wuptdo]

Real world with the School Board. My school board rep is Eleanor Goettee, and she is the only one I get to vote for. All three of my base schools (Reedy Creek, RCMS, and Panther Creek HS) all located in two other School Board members districts. When my community tries to "engage" Ms. Goettee about issues in these schools, especially the Reedy Creek schools, we get blown off (being polite here) by her and told to talk to that schools School Board member. When we tried to talk to that School Board member that has Reedy Creek Elementary in her district, she blows us off as well because we are not located in her district and don't vote for her. So there we are, with no one to turn to for help with these schools. Suggestions???

That is why I'm in favor of "at-large" voting for at least five of the School Board seats.

[JoeCiulla]

Real world with the School Board. My school board rep is Eleanor Goettee, and she is the only one I get to vote for. All three of my base schools (Reedy Creek, RCMS, and Panther Creek HS) all located in two other School Board members districts. When my community tries to "engage" Ms. Goettee about issues in these schools, especially the Reedy Creek schools, we get blown off (being polite here) by her and told to talk to that schools School Board member. When we tried to talk to that School Board member that has Reedy Creek Elementary in her district, she blows us off as well because we are not located in her district and don't vote for her. So there we are, with no one to turn to for help with these schools. Suggestions???

That is why I'm in favor of "at-large" voting for at least five of the School Board seats.

Wup,
I'm agreement, but would refine that to four at-large seats (those four plus your district rep gives you a majority vote).

But Stan has referenced Duke law professors in stating that at-large elections violate the Voting Rights Act. The NCGA has made the same argument. Now that the Democratic party has control of the CC's and Wake NCGA, they are in a position to bring Wake County CC elections back into compliance with the VRA. I do not believe the Republicans are in a position to stop such reform, especially since our present at-large CC election format is illegal.

Stan,
Can we expect action on this?

[MattD]

There were 31 partisan races in Wake County:

In Wake County, the Democrat candidate won: President, US Sen, 3 US Reps, Gov, Lt. Gov, Atty Gen, Auditor, Insurance, Labor, Sec of State, Superintendent and Tres. They also won state senate seats 14 and 16. State house seats 33, 34, 35, 38, 39 and 41. Finally, all 3 County Commissioner seats went to Dems.

In Wake County, the Republican candidate won: Commissioner of Ag, state senate seats 15 and 17 and state house seats 36, 37, and 40

If you’re keeping score: 25 Dems to 6 Reps

[JoeCiulla]

There were 31 partisan races in Wake County:

In Wake County, the Democrat candidate won: President, US Sen, 3 US Reps, Gov, Lt. Gov, Atty Gen, Auditor, Insurance, Labor, Sec of State, Superintendent and Tres. They also won state senate seats 14 and 16. State house seats 33, 34, 35, 38, 39 and 41. Finally, all 3 County Commissioner seats went to Dems.

In Wake County, the Republican candidate won: Commissioner of Ag, state senate seats 15 and 17 and state house seats 36, 37, and 40

If you’re keeping score: 25 Dems to 6 Reps

Matt,
I think the 6 Reps were all incumbents, correct?

[MattD]

There were 31 partisan races in Wake County:

In Wake County, the Democrat candidate won: President, US Sen, 3 US Reps, Gov, Lt. Gov, Atty Gen, Auditor, Insurance, Labor, Sec of State, Superintendent and Tres. They also won state senate seats 14 and 16. State house seats 33, 34, 35, 38, 39 and 41. Finally, all 3 County Commissioner seats went to Dems.

In Wake County, the Republican candidate won: Commissioner of Ag, state senate seats 15 and 17 and state house seats 36, 37, and 40

If you’re keeping score: 25 Dems to 6 Reps

Matt,
I think the 6 Reps were all incumbents, correct?

Good call. You are correct.

[JoeCiulla]

There were 31 partisan races in Wake County:

In Wake County, the Democrat candidate won: President, US Sen, 3 US Reps, Gov, Lt. Gov, Atty Gen, Auditor, Insurance, Labor, Sec of State, Superintendent and Tres. They also won state senate seats 14 and 16. State house seats 33, 34, 35, 38, 39 and 41. Finally, all 3 County Commissioner seats went to Dems.

In Wake County, the Republican candidate won: Commissioner of Ag, state senate seats 15 and 17 and state house seats 36, 37, and 40

If you’re keeping score: 25 Dems to 6 Reps

Matt,
I think the 6 Reps were all incumbents, correct?

Good call. You are correct.

No bag limits on elephants this season !! :violent3:

[JoeCiulla]

But Stan has referenced Duke law professors in stating that at-large elections violate the Voting Rights Act. The NCGA has made the same argument. Now that the Democratic party has control of the CC's and Wake NCGA, they are in a position to bring Wake County CC elections back into compliance with the VRA. I do not believe the Republicans are in a position to stop such reform, especially since our present at-large CC election format is illegal.

Stan,
Can we expect action on this?

Stan,
Inquiring minds want to know. You've argued against at-large elections for both CC and BoE, are you going to take this up with the NCGA?