The state of the election 9/19

[johnb]

Strong = lead of 10+ points
Weak = lead between 5-9.99 points
Barely = lead between .1-4.99 points

Strong Kerry states:

Hawaii, California, New Mexico, Illinois, Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont.

Weak Kerry states:

Washington, Michigan, New York, Connecticut, Maryland.

Barely Kerry states:

Maine, Minnesota, Oregon.

Strong Bush states:

Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina.

Weak Bush states:

New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Tennesee, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Wisconsin, Nevada.

Barely Bush states:

Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvannia, West Virginia, New Jersey.

Electoral count: Bush 331, Kerry 207.

The interesting thing to note is that Bush is holding all of the states he won in 2000. The "battleground states" are now shifting to states Gore won but Kerry is barely holding. Bush has the lead Wisconsin and Iowa at this point and is closing the gap in Minnesota. Those three upper midwest states are probably his easiest bets to flip from blue to red. They are clearly flyover territory for the Donkeys and have much more in common with Indiana, the Dakotas, Missouri, and Kansas than they do with Massachusetts or Hawaii. Pennsylvannia and New Jersey are both edging towards Bush. If Kerry fails to win either it is simply not possible to see how he could win the election legitimately. Pennsylvannia is probably going to end up edging more firmly into the Bush camp until election day. Then it will depend on how many fabricated "votes" Mayor John Streat manages to dredge up in Philly. The GOP has to win big between Pittsburgh and Philly to overcome the vote fraud in Philly. Jersey is interesting. If Bush wins Jersey the Kerry camp will be on the bad side of a landslide. Kerry is going to have to commit his resources to keeping Gore states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa need his attention and now. He's down 6 points in Wisconsin and it is trending away from him further.

Bush's other barely held states, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Colorado are probably safe but cannot be ignored. Bush should fight for the three upper midwest states and if he is able to flip Minnesota and solidify the other two move on to New Mexico. That is a state he won at the polls but lost due to massive vote fraud. He's making inroads in Illinois and New Mexico but he probably won't will Illinois unless it turns into a complete route. However, advertizing in Chicago would hit Wisconsin and would be justified plus may have collatoral damage to Kerry in Illinois. If Bush is able to move Pennsylvannia from barely held to weakly held he can start hitting Jersey more. The benefit for him here is that being in Philly and other eastern Pennsylvannia states will impact Jersey as well. He should press his advantage and put Kerry on the defensive in Gore states. He has the momentum right now, the goal should not be just to win, but to win decisively and route the Donkeys.

Polling info from electoral-vote.com and realclearpolitics.com.

[johnb]

Updates:

New polls are out this weekend.

There are five states to look at. One is not a surprise to me, but it will be to many of you.

Delaware, Kerry leads by only 2 points.

This was supposed to be a safe Donkeycrat pickup. *IF* Bush pushes hard for Pennsylvannia and New Jersey his efforts may be enough to wash over tiny Delaware. It's swamped with PA and NJ media.

Maine, Kerry leads by only 4 points.

With the ability to split Maine's electoral votes Bush *may* be able to pick up the 2nd district, the 1st would be tough. The fact that Kerry leads by such a small margin is troubling to the Kerry camp given their weakened state in other, supposedly "safe" states.

New Mexico, Bush by 3.

This one is no surprise. Bush won it in 2000 but vote fraud swung it to Kerry. Unless the Donkeys can "find" disappearing ballot boxes again stuffed with "just enough" Kerry ballots they're not gonna get NM. They're not gonna "win" NM on election day regardless but may get the electoral votes anyway if they succeed.

Oregon, Bush by 2.

Stunning. Kerry has a problem if he has to actually campaign in Oregon.

Washington, Bush by 1.

Even more stunning. This is the site of the city of Olympia, when the USS Olympia ( a nuclear sub ) was planning to visit the city earlier this year the city council went crazy and one city councilman in particular denounced the sub and demanded the city rescind it's invite to the ship. I forget the exact verbage he used but it was standard far left drivel about "warmongering tools of death" type stuff. Eastern Washington will have to turnout in high percentages for Bush to carry WA. Still if Kerry has to devote time and $$ here it's time and $$ not spent in Pennsylvannia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa--the Gore states Bush is most likely to flip.

In case any lefties think I'm pulling numbers out of thin air:

http://slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2106527&

Trends happen people. Unless Kerry does something quick this election will keep slipping away from him and towards "Paradigm Shift".

[johnb]

Didya see the latest polls? Some surprising states are turning into battleground states lately.

www.realclearpolitics.com

State Polls:
OH: Univ of Cincinnati: Bush +11
NJ: Quinnipiac: Bush 48, Kerry 48
MI: Two New Polls: Kerry +6, Kerry +4
PA: Mason-Dixon: Kerry 45, Bush 44
IA Mason-Dixon: Bush 48, Kerry 42
OR: Mason-Dixon: Bush 47, Kerry 43

Is Kerry going to have to pull time and money away from Florida now that he's fallen 5 points back there and try to retake the lead in NJ, Iowa, and Oregon? Interesting tactical situation.

[johnb]

An excerpt:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39744-2004Sep21.html

The meeting, however, was not a secret. Kerry, a leading antiwar activist at the time, mentioned it in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in April of that year. "I have been to Paris," he testified. "I have talked with both delegations at the peace talks, that is to say the Democratic Republic of Vietnam and Provisional Revolutionary Government," the latter a South Vietnamese communist group with ties to the Viet Cong.
Kerry's campaign said earlier this year that he met on the trip with Nguyen Thi Binh, then foreign minister of the PRG and a top negotiator at the talks. Kerry acknowledged in that testimony that even going to the peace talks as a private citizen was at the "borderline" of what was permissible under U.S. law, which forbids citizens from negotiating treaties with foreign governments. But his campaign said he never engaged in negotiations or attended any formal sessions of the talks.

"This is more trash from a group that's doing the Bush campaign's dirty work," Kerry spokesman Chad Clanton said. "Their charges are as credible as a supermarket rag."

In an interview yesterday, John O'Neill, an organizer of the Swift boat group and co-author of the anti-Kerry book "Unfit for Command," said it would be "unprecedented" for a future commander in chief to have met with enemy leaders. "It would be like an American today meeting with the heads of al Qaeda," he said.

====================

Note the Kerry campaign isn't even trying to explain why Kerry was meeting with a Communist government we were fighting in Vietnam and the leaders of a terrorist group (the Viet Cong) as well. They're just calling people names for pointing out the obvious, Kerry met, during a time when GI's were in the field fighting those forces. Aside from it being a violation of US law, Kerry was also a military officer in the Naval Reserves at the time.

It actually would be akin to a military officer going to Pakistan today and meeting with Osama and talking about how to meet his demands for "peace".

Why is is "trash" or a "dirty trick" to point out verifiable, non-contestable events in the historical record Kerry participated in or committed?

How will this Swift Boat Vet ad play out in the court of public opinion?

[johnb]

So according to the rumours, Kerry has pulled his advertizing in Arizona, Colorado, Wisconsin, and West Virginia.

Things are looking exceptionally bad for Kerry in Oregon, Pennsylvannia, and Minnesota right now. All states that Gore had won in 2000. The electoral calculus is getting very difficult for Kerry. Trying to add up 270 electoral votes would require a radical change in the trends with Bush having the momentum. The electorate is focusing more on the two individual candidates and as that occurs Kerry's negatives are rising dramatically while Bush's favorables and job approval ratings are rising above 50%.

Given the fact that Bush's hammering on Kerry's inability to articulate a clear and concise message on Iraq is registering with the electorate and is showing in the polls it is imperative for Kerry that during the debates he stops arguing with himself and articulate a clear and identifiable position on Iraq that the average voter can hear and understand. Weaslely statements wrapped in "buts" won't cut it. Changing a position is fine, unless that position is a fundamental or core position. Defending freedom and America is not a commitment a candidate can wrap in disclaimers without suffering for it.