Coping with Growth - Wake's Schools

[StanN]

Bill MCNeal lays it on the line.

As you read this think about the County Commissioners giving the school system an extra $2 million to account for their miscalculation of the recent growth. What was the real motivation? Who do you trust more - McNeal or the County Commissioners? Who is really responsible to solve the problem? The school board? The County Commissioners?

What do you think should be done to finance the growth? Impact fees? Taxes? Adequate public facilities? Jam the kids into existing schools?
Ask the state to waive the new requirements for 3rd grade class sizes? Do nothing and hope for the best?

POINT OF VIEW
Published: Sep 28, 2004
Modified: Sep 28, 2004 8:16 AM

Wake schools' growth: the next chapter


By BILL MCNEAL


RALEIGH -- Over the next several weeks, members of the Wake County Board of Education will struggle to find the best solution to a looming challenge. For the last two years our student population growth has outpaced county planners' projections. Seven new schools opened this year, another is scheduled to open next year and still more are planned for 2006. Even so, we face a short-term need to find more than 4,100 seats for elementary students for the next school year (2005-06).
How could this happen? Well, the school board and the Wake County Public School System have been warning about population growth for some time. In all, $867 million in capital needs -- including new schools and renovations -- were identified ahead of the October 2003 bond referendum, which was pared down during negotiations with the Wake County Board of Commissioners to $450 million.

Meanwhile, growth began to advance beyond projections. Because Wake County is the source of our funding, we rely on data from the county's planning department, which has contracted with the private firm Informed Decisions, Inc., since the 1990s. From 1993 through 2004, their enrollment projections have been within 1 percent of our actual enrollment, except in 1998 (when it was 1.4 percent).

The school system distributed a growth management publication explaining the student assignment process at Community Engagement meetings last September, October and November. It included two graphs detailing county and student population growth. The publication clearly restated the county's 2005-06 student enrollment projection as 115,304.

This September, a count of our 2004 10th-day enrollment was factored in, and internally revised figures predict 118,731 students for next year. These latest projections for the 2005-06 school year are much larger than expected.

According to registration data, more than 1,900 students returned to Wake public schools from private, parochial, home and charter schools. In addition, the state's mandated class-size reduction in third grade required us to find 90 additional classrooms, following two years of class-size reductions in kindergarten and first grade. This is at a time when our school construction has barely kept pace with the original projections.
• • •

The news media have naturally focused on only one area that the school board asked us to explore, and for which we made no recommendation: the possibility of temporarily converting selected elementary schools to year-round calendars.

Other potential solutions which we have advanced include adding mobile units and modular classrooms; constructing a modular ninth-grade center; leasing property to be retrofitted or used as a site for a modular school; and reducing, eliminating or outsourcing certain program activities. In addition, at its previous meeting the school board directed us to apply for a waiver of the state's third-grade class size reduction mandate.

If additional school facilities -- mobile units or modular schools -- are to be part of the solution, we must act quickly. We are hoping for a decision from the school board in October, because such facilities require time for design, manufacture, delivery, outfitting, permit-granting and inspection before being available for students arriving next fall, to say nothing of securing funding. To wait any longer defeats the purpose.
( I hear $43 million is needed.)

Our effort at this point is to be prepared for 2005-06 and to house students in safe, effective places to learn. In the meantime, we will continue our work in the Community Engagement meetings this fall to solicit input from the public on our future planning, both short-term and long-term. Our growth management and facilities departments are collaborating closely on the Vision 2020 process, which would closely integrate student assignment and school construction, offering more stability.

I appreciate the concern our public has for this issue. None of the solutions for next year's anticipated crowding are ideal. We will maintain our commitment to keep our schools continuously improving, safe, and effective places for children to learn while keeping faith with Wake County citizens' desire for efficient use of taxpayer dollars.

(Bill McNeal is superintendent of the Wake County Public School System.)



© Copyright 2004, The News & Observer Publishing Company,
a subsidiary of The McClatchy Company

[johnb]

Why would anyone trust Wild Bill?

[Wuptdo]

Wild Bill wrote:

In addition, the state's mandated class-size reduction in third grade required us to find 90 additional classrooms, following two years of class-size reductions in kindergarten and first grade.

And how much "extra" money did you get from the State for this. If I recall, if the State "mandates it" they pay for it. Gov. "Tax-Hike" Mike is very proud of his education record; surely he won't try to make "poor" counties pay for his education programs.


Wild Bill wrote:

In all, $867 million in capital needs -- including new schools and renovations -- were identified ahead of the October 2003 bond referendum, which was pared down during negotiations with the Wake County Board of Commissioners to $450 million.


Oh yeah, you got about 70% approval on this last bond issue. Do you think for one minute that a $867 million bond issue would of passed. If I recall from those negotiations, Mr. McNeal was supposed to convert more schools to year-round - why not?

Wild Bill wrote:
This September, a count of our 2004 10th-day enrollment was factored in, and internally revised figures predict 118,731 students for next year. These latest projections for the 2005-06 school year are much larger than expected.


Why is the 10 day number so important? Because this is the number they use to get the "big" checks from the Federal and State governments. More students = more money. In the last fiscal year, how much additional revenue was generated by Wake County for all the new construction.

Wild Bill wrote:

According to registration data, more than 1,900 students returned to Wake public schools from private, parochial, home and charter schools


And how many of those where going into the High Schools? There is an extreme shortage of High Schools slots in both private/parochial/charter schools. Note to all: Best Public High School in North Carolina - Raleigh Charter High School.

I wonder why Mr. McNeal failed to mention the additional number of "illegal alien" children filling up our schools.

Wild Bill wrote:

The news media have naturally focused on only one area that the school board asked us to explore, and for which we made no recommendation: the possibility of temporarily converting selected elementary schools to year-round calendars.


Why not. Afraid of the political fall out? It is your job and the School Boards, now do it! The County Manger over in Durham was just fired for not doing as he was told! You just got a $10,000 bonus and a 3% pay raise - earn it!

Wild Bill wrote:


We will maintain our commitment to keep our schools continuously improving, safe, and effective places for children to learn while keeping faith with Wake County citizens' desire for efficient use of taxpayer dollars.


Well something has to give cause you are already eating up 55% of the county budget (just look at your property tax bills). Year-round schools are the best utilization of school buildings; i.e., big bang for a little more money.

Stan - answer some of your questions:

1) Immediate halting of all residential building permits (3 years)
2) Immediate enforcement of current residential building codes and occupancy standards
3) Immediate enforcement of employment laws (you hire illegals - you go to jail)
4) Get emergency permission from the State to impose "impact" fees on developers and builders
5) Get emergency permission from State to impose 1-3% transfer tax on all real estate transactions (Buyer pays)
6) Drop the education goals - too much money wasted on kids on the low end of the bell curve (we are now a service economy - Stupid)
7) Stop busing for "diversity;" go back to neighborhood schools
8) Convert all the elementary schools to year-round, then the following year convert middle & High Schools (Oh my God, what about HS Football!!!!) Pain is best when shared by all!!!!

Whom do I trust Stan - how about none of the above! What will happen will be the "course of least resistance." For one of the most educated parts of U.S., I am always amazed how stupid the voters really are and there lack of short-term memory.

Now, if I was the TOC, this would be a good time to pay another consultant, to look into forming Cary's own School District (we are already bigger than Chapel Hill). I for one would have no problem having any extra 12-14 cents per hundred added to my tax bill. And why is that you say; pay more taxes. Simple, with our own school district, Cary Schools will soar like eagles amongst turkeys. Better Schools, even with higher taxes, homes in Cary will appreciate much faster and thus more money at resale time. It has been proving time and time again, people don't mind paying for homes and the high taxes to be in good school districts. (However, this is based on maintaining good jobs in RTP)

The other question is - Who really wrote this LTE? Mr. McNeal or Mr. Weeks? What you see here is a very well planned out public relations campaign. Don't be a victim!

Wuptdo B-)

[StanN]

1. I trust McNeal more than I do the WCC - no contest.

2. Wup, the state does not pay one cent for school construction. The mandate of reducing 3rd grade class size may have been funded as far as teachers go (but not the county suppliment) but it is an unfunded mandate regarding construction costs.

3. Forgetting the cost or complexities of buying the school buildings from whoever owns them now (not Cary) - Chapel Hill spends about $1500 more per student per year than Wake to operate their schools. A good part of that must be do to less economies of scale. Assuming 25K students, Cary's operating budget would have to go up $38 million/yr. or roughly $1,000/family/year. Are you willing to pay your share? And we haven't yet costed out all the new school buildings needed for the kids now going to school outside Cary, e.g. Apex High. And what do you do for the next ten years it takes to get your proposal through the state general assembly?

4. Lets assume you are right about illegal aliens swamping the schools. So would you suggest the ones we don't let in the schools form street gangs.
Or would you propose to deport their families? Who would do it, Bush? Kerry? I suspect you would shut down half the restaurants, 80% of the lawn services, 80% of the janitorial service businesses and a like amount of the construction industry. Perhaps we ought to put the kids we don't let into schools into detention camps. Put all the people who hire illegals in jail? You would rather build jails than schools?

5. How about a two year delay on the new convention center and divert the hotel and prepared meals tax to the school system - let the state sue you if they don't like it? ($20 million/yr.) Or how about delaying all the non-essentials in the county's construction budget, e.g. rennovating county offices, building new county office buildings, new computers for the county, paying for Raleigh's future water supply, etc. (totaling $20 million/yr.) tell the folks in the UA they are going to have to pay for their own police patrol and divert the exististng tax revenue to the schools (~$17 million on/yr.). Forgetaboutit - the clowns on Salisbury Street have neither the guts the imagination to do any thing outside the box.

[Brent]

The news media have naturally focused on only one area that the school board asked us to explore, and for which we made no recommendation: the possibility of temporarily converting selected elementary schools to year-round calendars.

In addition to those passages Stan highlights, this one also set me off when I got the e-mail from WCPSS.

OF COURSE the media focused on forced year-round, probably because it is such an OUTRAGEOUS alternative to suggest. I have seen this one coming for several years. I suspect that Staff raised this odious alternative and "made no recommendation" on it because they wanted to float a trial balloon and see just how much outcry there was, so that they could figure out when they might actually realistically be able to get away with this one in the future. I expect this one is coming at some point, it's just a matter of time. And I despise the thought of it (and I no longer have kids of my own in elementary schools).

What a crock.

[Brent]

If additional school facilities -- mobile units or modular schools -- are to be part of the solution, we must act quickly. We are hoping for a decision from the school board in October, because such facilities require time for design, manufacture, delivery, outfitting, permit-granting and inspection before being available for students arriving next fall, to say nothing of securing funding. To wait any longer defeats the purpose.

Translation: We have to ram something through without that bothersome public input. We are hoping for a decision in October so that we can put this behind us [the fact of the matter is that it doesn't take a year to get more trailers in place, if that is part of the solution]. To wait any longer just allows for louder and more protracted public outcry.

[Brent]

5. How about a two year delay on the new convention center and divert the hotel and prepared meals tax to the school system - let the state sue you if they don't like it? ($20 million/yr.) Or how about delaying all the non-essentials in the county's construction budget, e.g. rennovating county offices, building new county office buildings, new computers for the county, paying for Raleigh's future water supply, etc. (totaling $20 million/yr.) tell the folks in the UA they are going to have to pay for their own police patrol and divert the exististng tax revenue to the schools (~$17 million on/yr.). Forgetaboutit - the clowns on Salisbury Street have neither the guts the imagination to do any thing outside the box.

Yeah, how about some of these? How about setting priorities and fixing the dire problems before spending on luxuries like a convention center? But you're right, these make too much sense and the politicians would never go for them. :P

[Wuptdo]

Stan - good points (but limited time).

I just heard on the news that McNeil weaseled out and took year-round schools off the table. Why?

Illegal Aliens - the figure varies week to week, but the best estimate is about 55,000 in N.C. In the last three years we have lost about 150,000 jobs, though the number is moving down. If we get rid of the illegals, that will put at least 50,000 "Native" North Carolians back to work. Yes, thier standard of living will be cut, but how good is that standard when the unemployment runs out and they are living on welfare. (Remember, the purpose of NAFTA was to change our economy to a "service" economy; less pay, but more jobs.) Hungry Children should be a strong motivator to go back to work. As it now, it is easier for illigals to get health care than "natives." Thats not right!
And yes, mass deportations; fill up those rail cars and ship them back to Mexico. We did with Japanese-American in WWII and we can do it again! Did you read the article in Time last week?

Stan wrote:

Assuming 25K students, Cary's operating budget would have to go up $38 million/yr. or roughly $1,000/family/year. Are you willing to pay your share?

Where do I send the check! I figure with additional 2% appreciation on my home every year, that's a bargin. :wink:

I glad to see you threw some ideas out as well. However, is anyone really listening. You know as well as I, all major decesion are made at the Cardinal Club, not by the County Commish's. Do you belong?

Wuptdo B-)

[StanN]

Brent,

You may be correct. Converting to year round schools is one of the few options within the control of McNeal and the school board. If I were them, I wouldn't trust the County Commissioners to do anything of a serious nature - particularly before an election - and maybe not after the election - depending on who wins and who gets thrown out.

The $2 million the WCC's came up with the other day was just for show - figuring most of the public was too stupid to realize how little the amount was relative to the problem. The way the N&O praised the WCC for the $2 million you would have thought the messiah had arrived. That could have been mind prep for the N&O endorsing the existing commissioners up for re-election. McNeal was saying that those are the same ones who cut the construction budget by $437 million. If I were McNeal I would be really ticked off over getting just $2 million - a drop in the bucket. And then the WCC's get huzzah's from the N&O. What a joke!

The problem is even deeper than most realize. The official construction budget is $550 million. Kenn Gardner goes boasting thats what the Citizens Advisory Committee suggested and the WCC approved. True but the CAC suggestion was based on the an enrollment of 3,500 not 5,100. It was the max they could envision without a tax increase. But where are they going to get the $100 million above the bond money? I don't think they know - without a tax increase or doing something heroic with their precious construction budget for stuff other than schools.

[StanN]

Chronically underfunding schools so they can take other adventures has really pu the WCC behind the eight ball. Construction costs are skyrocketing. The schools, when they are eventually built will cost far more than if they had kept to a regular schedule rather than funding everything else in sight. And we are the ones who will have to pay the bill for their follies..stan

[Brent]

I just heard on the news that McNeil weaseled out and took year-round schools off the table. Why?

Because he put his finger up in the air to test the wind and his finger was nearly bitten off by an outraged public. Clearly, enough of the school board realized what an outrageous idea this was (thanks in part to the "media focus") and realized that they wouldn't be able to get away with it this year without paying a heavy political price.

It will be back next year, though.

[Brent]

Chronically underfunding schools so they can take other adventures has really pu the WCC behind the eight ball. Construction costs are skyrocketing. The schools, when they are eventually built will cost far more than if they had kept to a regular schedule rather than funding everything else in sight. And we are the ones who will have to pay the bill for their follies..stan

Yep. I agree that the buck stops (literally and figuratively) with the WCCs, and it's time we got some commissioners who will put their school money where their mouths are. So far, the only sign in my yard is for one such person.

[Wuptdo]

Stan wrote to Brent:

You may be correct. Converting to year round schools is one of the few options within the control of McNeal and the school board

A few years ago I remember reading where the WCC's telling Mr. McNeal that he needed to start converting over-crowded schools to year-round - ASAP. The County couldn't afford a new bonds every other year - bah, bah, and more bad. He and school board choose not to pursue that course. And now they are blaming WCC for their failure to act. At times like this I wonder why we even have a "School Board."

What I fail to understand is why some parents are so against year-round schools; I sure I will find out in next weeks Cary News! :roll: The paradigm for traditional schools disappeared when children where no longer required to pick "crops in the field." When was the last time a kid in WCPSS had to shuck tobacco or pick cotton? Due to high building cost, price of land, availability of land and inefficient design of older schools, I view year-round schools as the most economical means to either educate children (parents who care) or warehouse children (parents who don't care).

Stan, I disagree with you on the State people, we really need to hold their feet to the fire this election cycle. I tired I hearing about Ms. Weiss as the Educational choice, but only helps kids in rural counties. How about Statewide building "impact" fees. When I am in my alter-ego in Person County, the same issues arise up there as well.

But then again, we may differ on the paths, but we are still peaching to the choir. I tired of writing into the wind, I want to do something. Suggestions?

As much attention is focused on National Elections, it's the local jokers who actually affect us the most. This is who we need to focus on.

Wuptdo B-)

[Brent]

What I fail to understand is why some parents are so against year-round schools

I don't understand why so many people insist on driving to Crossroads on Saturday, either, but that's their choice and I'm not about to propose a solution to overburdened roads that tells people what days they're allowed to drive on the road.

As much attention is focused on National Elections, it's the local jokers who actually affect us the most. This is who we need to focus on.

I completely agree. I just know that thousands of people are going to show up to vote for Bush or Kerry, and once they're in the voting booth, they will realize for the first time that there are state house and senate races and county commission races and wish they knew more about those candidates...

[johnb]

Wup,

Personally, I don't care for year round schools. Education is not limited to schools only. That long summer vacation enables kids to do things that will probably have more of an impact on them than most of what they sit through in the public schools.

Personally, I take Boy Scouts on week long backpacking trips in the mountains near Asheville every year. This year I took 8 of them and half of them went to Philmont Scout Ranch for almost 3 weeks a week after we got back. Some of them, my son included also went to a week at the local Scout camp, Camp Durant, for a week of summer camp before all that.

Don't sell summer vacation short. The lessons that can be learned and the things they do can be very impactive on their lives and character. Those that complain are probably those that don't utilize that time for active pursuits, but instead play video games and "hang out" all summer.

[Wuptdo]

Brent wrote:

I don't understand why so many people insist on driving to Crossroads on Saturday

Shudders at the thought of Crossroads on Saturday morning! 8-O 8-O

Lib McGowan over at ABC Skool choice makes several goods points:

The following is the text of the comments I made during the public comment session at the school board meeting on September 23:

I’m here to ask some questions about the current “crisis” over the shortfall in classroom space for the projected enrollment in the 2005-2006 school year.

My first question is, why are we pretending that this 118,000 student projected enrollment figure is news?

Here is a copy of the “Growth Matters” handout that went home to every parent in January of this year. On the front page is a chart showing the predicted enrollment growth rate. Look at the 2005-2006 year on this chart, and you see a predicted enrollment of about 116,000.

The administration has been aware of this upcoming seat shortfall for some time now. Why was the school board informed of this at the beginning of September, and told that it is a problem they need to make a decision about within the next month?

Delaying this request for a decision has severely reduced the options available to the school system at this point, and reduced the possibility of coming up with the optimal solution for the county. It has also effectively blocked the opportunity for the community to have any involvement in the decision making process, since the decision deadline has been conveniently set to be a week before the first of the so-called “Community Engagement” meetings in October. How convenient.

Not only has the administration delayed reporting the problem at all, it has also failed to provide you with adequate information to have a full handle on the problem. Perhaps that will be rectified to some extent later in this meeting.

For instance, is this genuinely a crisis situation? Various areas of the county have been badly underserved by schools before. Where is the historical perspective? How does the upcoming shortfall compare to, say the situation in Western Wake 2 or 3 years ago? Where is the future perspective beyond 2005-2006? What will be the situation be shortfall in the following years, when scheduled new schools come on board?

Where are the crucial details to the situation? At this point, the administration has provided you only with large, macro level details. For instance, they tell you that the expected enrollment next year is 118,731 students. They also state that the expected campus capacity will be 113,660 students. This suggests that system-wide, we will be at 104% of capacity - which is high, but not outside accepted norms. Of course, since an elementary seat in Wake Forest is not equal to a high school seat in Holly Springs, it’s obvious that particular set of figures is not detailed enough to make decisions on.

Let’s look at the deepest level of detail they’ve given you so far. They tell you that for the 32 elementary schools in Area A, there will be a 2,169 student over-enrollment. Again, with only the macro level details, it would be easy to say that this comes down to 2,169 students divided among 32 schools, or 68 children per school. Break that down further to 6 grade levels per school, and you would get 11 students per grade level, or perhaps 2 or 3 per classroom.

But, the fact is, it is very unlikely that this over-enrollment is equally distributed among these 32 schools, which make up over a third of the elementary schools in the county. It is crucial to the decision-making process to know where that extra growth is expected to come from, and which schools would be most heavily impacted.

If you don’t have that information, you cannot make a good decision for the county. You cannot make a valid decision about where mobile units would be needed, or determine viable sites for new modular schools if you decide to go that route. If you make this decision without the necessary information, you’ll be guilty of malpractice.

Why are you, as a school board, reacting so placidly to being forced into making a hasty decision, when any of the available choices are going to cost well into the millions of dollars? I can’t think of any other billion dollar operation that would stand back with an “oh, well, what’s done is done” attitude when their staff failed to provide crucial information in a timely fashion, and force them into making hasty, stop-gap decisions.

As a member of the Mayors’ Task Force, I continue to call for the implementation of the Task Force’s recommendations on long and short term comprehensive planning. The current situation clearly points out the inadequacy of our existing system. There is much more to planning than having an Excel chart sitting in someone’s computer saying what you expect the next year’s enrollment to be. There must be better coordination between the facilities department and the student assignment areas to ensure that the required seats will be available, and there must also be the opportunity for the community to have a voice in the decisions being made. - Lib McGowan

Good example of community leadership in action, however, this fell on deaf ears, which is a requirement to be on the School Board. And for those who don't remember the $60K that Cary paid for the Mayor's Task Force, this is it:

http://www.townofcary.org/agenda/specialcoms/schoolassignment/finaldraftreport.htm

Stan, since you are such a good friend to McNeal, can you tell me why they continued to ignore multi-community recommendations?

Wuptdo B-)

[Anonymous]

Wup,

How much long term forecasting have you personally done? To quote Victor Borge: "Forecasting is very difficult, particualrly when it is about the future" and "He who forecasts should reforecast frequently."

[Anonymous]

Who said "Crossroads is so busy, no one ever goes there anymore"?

[Wuptdo]

Stan wrote:

How much long term forecasting have you personally done?

Stan, actually a lot, with a margin of error of +/- 3%. So that is what the WCPSS is hiding behind - "margin of error." All those highly paid Phd's, and that's the best they can do. LAME!

And Stan, you still haven't answered the last question:

Wup Wrote:
Stan, since you are such a good friend to McNeal, can you tell me why they continued to ignore multi-community recommendations? Mayor's Task Force

Adding to your homework Stan, here is a list of terms, which I pretty sure you know what they mean, but does McNeal (not Phd), anyone on his staff, or anyone on the school board know (or care).

Economies of Scale, Factors of Production, financial control, absolute advantage, behavior modification, Boolean operators, capitalism, comparative advantage theory, consumereism, demand curve,
geodemographics, management, mass customization, media plan,oligopoly, Program evaulation and review technique (PERT),
relationship marketing, responsibility, Six Sigma, Bell curve, mean, and medium (sorry, got a little carried away). Actually I would be happy if any of the above understood the concept of "Free-Market Economy" and "Service Economy."

What I don't understand Stan, is what dog do you have in this fight. I have four kids in the "system."

Wuptdo B-)

"At both the local and provincial levels, scholar-official local elite could also effectively oppose officials' policies by appealing to influential friends in higher offices" - Bureaucratic Reform in Provincial China, Ting Jih-ch'ang in Restoration Kiangsu, 1867-1879: Dr. Jonathan Ocko, Chair, History Department, NC State

[Brent]

Who said "Crossroads is so busy, no one ever goes there anymore"?

Heh, heh, heh...see, posting is fun!

[Wuptdo]

~~Background music: Theme from the movie Deliverance~~~~~

Well look what was in today's N&O:

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1699437p-7949633c.html

Man they are fast. What do you want to bet this was planned out several months ago? Funny, I thought it was against the law to use "Bond" money for "other" purposes? Also, why don't they just use the same bond financing they used on the Jesse Helms Memorial Convention Center? Surely, the County Commish's can show them how. :roll:

Oh, and some more info about NC Schools:

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/nc/story/1699504p-7949563c.html

Quality Education! I quess this is what happens when voters also lower the standards of their elected officials.

Wuptdo B-)

[Brent]

Can you say "Bait and Switch and use this as justification for a tax increase and/or forced year-round next year"? :P

[Wuptdo]

Time for another Community Meeting from your good friends at the Wake County Public School System.

Wednesday Night at 7pm at Green Hope High School

My previous experience is that these "community meetings" tend to be one-way (them telling us). I will try again to see if they will engage in a two-dyad.

Wuptdo B-)

Fight the power!

[Brent]

Good luck with that, Wup.

Remember, your input cannot be ignored if you don't show up! :wink: