Place your bets folks!

[johnb]

http://www.electoralchallenge.com

We have a group called "CelebrateCary"

Create a user ID and post your electoral vote predictions and you have to pick a set of specific battleground states.

Let's see who can see the handwriting on the wall in this election.....

[johnb]

Oh....here's a cheat sheet for factoring the state results and tallying the EV count....

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

[hollyL]

What do we get if we win? :-D

[johnb]

I have to remind myself Hyatt calls this a "family" environment. :twisted:

[Mark]

Am I just not seeing how to register? It seems I can only register a group, which I don't want to do, and not just a user name and then join a group.

Does anyone know if you can create a group and name and then switch? Do you need to be invited? If so, shoot me an invite to mark@artechnik.com

[johnb]

Just did...what url did it send you??? Post it for the others please...as the group creator I keep getting the group login...

[Mark]

Thanks John, I'm all signed up.

For others, follow the link below.

http://www.electoralchallenge.com/signup.php?group=CelebrateCary

[Mark]

Using the cheat calculator John posted above I came up with Kerry 274, Bush 264. I'm optimistic, I'll grant you. I don't know about New Hampshire, it may actually go Bush moving it to 270-268. Which, in a way would be better.

I don't think that will be exactly right though because you can't split Maine or Nebraska on the calculator. I gave Maine's 4 to Kerry and Nebraska's 5 to Bush, so it about works out. However, Bush's support in NE is stronger than is Kerry's support in ME, so NE might end up 4-1 or 3-2 while Maine might end up 3-1 or 2-2. So, in retrospect, I think I'll give Bush 1 more.
Who knows what will happen with Colorado if their split prop passes. It'd be 5-4 probably for Bush. I don't think it has the legs, though, so I'll leave it alone.

Finally, notice that with my predictions as I've ammended them for the splits above, if Bush wins NH, the final tally turns out to be 269-269. I can also easily acheive that with a not unreasonable flip of two combinations of states. Could you imagine? I'm not sure I want to.

[dhyatt]

Hey Mark, why the bag over the head avatar? We all luv ya', no need to hide your head :-)

[Mark]

My previous one was the "Springfield Communist," I was getting some heat from the feds, so I decided to go incognito. How did you know it was me anyway? ;)

[johnb]

It's getting close to election day....

anyone have any surprise picks for states?

I'll put my neck out on the line....watch for these....

Bush carries all the states he carried in 2000.

Plus...

Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico all go Bush. These three aren't much of a surprise. Iowa and Wisconsin have been trending Republican for some time now. New Mexico went to Kerry only by vote fraud last time...it was tight...a 360 vote deviation.

The surprises are these:

Pennsylvannia, Maine, and Minnesota will be carried by Bush.

Kerry will know the election is over before he even gets past the Eastern Time Zone.

New Jersey and Michigan will be very tight. Both states will show Republican vote totals within a few % of the Donkeys. If Bush can get the momentum rolling now he might carry them.

[Wuptdo]

The latest Gallup poll (+/- 3%):

http://www.gallup.com/election2004/

Wuptdo B-)

[Brent]

Just posting a reply to get this topic back up near the top of the forum, so that someone remembers to go back and check the predictions tomorrow night (so that I...um, that is, whoever is closest...gets the well-deserved accolades.

[johnb]

To put it back on top...also...Bush wins Guam


PRESIDENTIAL RACE
• George W. Bush 17,264
• John Kerry 9,540
• Ralph Nader 153
• Campagna Badnarik 53

Source: Guam Election Commission

[johnb]

Also...here were the votes:
<table><tr><td>Username</td><td align=center>D</td><td align=center>R</td><td>Winner</td></tr><tr><td>Brent</td><td>252</td><td>286</td><td align=center>Bush</td></tr><tr><td>dhyatt</td><td>220</td><td>318</td><td align=center>Bush</td></tr><tr><td>holly</td><td>279</td><td>259</td><td align=center>Kerry</td></tr><tr><td>johnb</td><td>153</td><td>385</td><td align=center>Bush</td></tr><tr><td>jrmints2305</td><td>235</td><td>303</td><td align=center>Bush</td></tr><tr><td>kcommiskey</td><td>270</td><td>268</td><td align=center>Kerry</td></tr><tr><td>Mark</td><td>274</td><td>264</td><td align=center>Kerry</td></tr><tr><td>rrinda</td><td>265</td><td>273</td><td align=center>Bush</td></tr><tr><td>Wuptdo</td><td>243</td><td>295</td><td align=center>Bush</td></tr><tr><td></table>

[Anonymous]

Brent is looking pretty good right now, at 2:35 am.

249 + 20 Ohio + 5 NV + 5 Nevada + 7 Iowa = 286.

[Brent]

Brent is looking pretty good right now, at 2:35 am.

Hey, guest, at 2:35 a.m., most anyone can look good. :lol: :lol: :-D

Although my wife might want to quibble with you... :lol:

[Brent]

...but all I am really interested in is how many write-in votes I got for Soil & Water Conservation Board. :lol:

[Brent]

Brent is looking pretty good right now, at 2:35 am.

249 + 20 Ohio + 5 NV + 5 Nevada + 7 Iowa = 286.

And as long as we're doing comparisons, and even though we may not need a tiebreaker, here are m predictions for the "tiebreaker", or swing state results:
------------------------
Predictions are final after November 1, 2004. Here was your prediction:

Democrat Vote: 252
Republican Vote: 286
Swing States:
State Party
1. Florida rep
2. Missouri rep
3. Ohio rep
4. Pennsylvania dem
-------------------------

[Brent]

So, following George W's lead, I am hereby claiming victory, even in the absence of concessions from other predictors, in the presidential prediction contest. :)

I think when the counting is done I might even have nailed it!

(I wanted to get this in before Hyatt calls a moratorium on gloating). :-D

[Karen]

(I wanted to get this in before Hyatt calls a moratorium on gloating). :-D

Geez, you even gloated about beating me by one minute on Kerry's concession. :lol:

-Karen

[Brent]

Gotta get the gloating in before Hyatt calls it off... :lol:

[johnb]

What was impressive was that Bush increased his vote percentage in all but three states. He came very close to closing the gap in Wisconsin, Minn, and Michigan. The red states went redder and the blue states went less blue. THAT is the story of this election. We may be on the cusp of a political realignment that started with Goldwater and has been buiding steam, slowed only by two crimminals in the White House, Nixon and Clinton.